A new study led by the Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC) demonstrates why conservation efforts must integrate the combined effects of multiple extreme climate phenomena, rather than focusing solely on isolated incidents.
A new international analysis now published in Global Change Biology warns that penguin survival hinges on a shift in how science and conservation policy approach climate change: rather than examining extreme events in isolation, it is their cumulative effects that must be assessed. Applied for the first time quantitatively across the habitats of all 18 penguin species in the Southern Hemisphere, this perspective provides a crucial tool for anticipating risks and designing more effective conservation policies.
The study, led by the Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC) in collaboration with the Laboratoire LOCEAN-IPSL (Sorbonne Université) and Phillip Island Nature Parks, identifies which penguins are the most at risk from the growing accumulation of extreme climate events. According to the authors, the conclusions extend beyond the protection of these iconic seabirds: they identified regions particularly affected by the combined impacts of marine heatwaves, extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and terrestrial heatwaves, where these extreme events could reshape biodiversity and the ecosystem services provided by the oceans in the coming decades.
"Our findings reveal that extreme climate events are unevenly distributed across both land and sea in the Southern Hemisphere, pinpointing the areas where penguins are most at risk" said Camila Artana (LOCEAN-IPSL). “This work also lays the groundwork for assessing how other Southern Hemisphere species may be vulnerable to climate change”.
By analysing three decades of climate data, the researchers found that African, Snares, Emperor, Adélie, and Galápagos penguins are exposed to the greatest cumulative risks. Looking ahead, the whole penguin community are expected to face even greater intensity, duration, and frequency of extreme events in the coming decades.
“Penguin habitats are not just impacted by isolated extreme events, but by their cumulative effects across both land and ocean environments,” explained Miriam Gimeno (ICM-CSIC), PhD student who led this work. “Evidence already suggests that these pressures could reduce reproductive success, foraging efficiency, and resilience.”
The researchers propose a three-step framework to reduce ecosystem vulnerability that could be applied to other species and regions worldwide. The first step is to identify priority hotspots where exposure to multiple extreme events is already high or rapidly increasing. The second is to factor in additional local stressors, such as fisheries, coastal development, or tourism, which can exacerbate climate impacts. Finally, the third step calls for adaptive management measures based on continuous monitoring, ensuring that conservation strategies remain flexible and responsive as new data and projections emerge.
Among the management actions recommended are stronger environmental protections in Antarctica, fisheries regulations to mitigate the potential impact of extreme events at sea, and restoration of breeding habitats to buffer the effects of land-based extreme events.
“By identifying the species and regions most at risk, we provide actionable insights for conservation planning and policy implementation, contributing to the goal of the IUCN Penguin Specialist Group to have Wild Penguins in perpetuity” said Andre Chiaradia (Phillip Island Nature Parks). “Proactive, spatially informed management is essential to safeguard penguin populations in the face of escalating climate extremes.”
The study sends a clear message: penguins and their ecosystems cannot wait for incremental solutions. By revealing the hotspots and species most at risk from cumulative extreme climate events, the research provides a blueprint for urgent, targeted conservation action. Protecting penguins today means protecting the future of oceans and coastlines worldwide. The time to act is now.